ELECTIONS IN PUNJAB ARE A TURNING POINT FOR INDIAN DEMOCRACY

The border state of Punjab in India has given a new opposition party in Delhi its first victory, but it may find it much more difficult to rule there.
India, the world's largest democracy, has held elections since 1951 and transformed national and state governments largely peacefully. Five of the 28 states of India recently went to the polls. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won re-election in four  of the five states. In the northwestern border state of Punjab, the opposition Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won against the incumbent Congress Party. 

What's so special about an AAP win?

AAP is a relatively new batch. It was founded in 2012 and is headed by Arvind Kejriwal, Chief Minister of Delhi, the capital of India. Unlike Punjab, Delhi is not a federal state. It is one of eight Union Territories of India, some directly administered  while others have their own legislatures. The 1991 Parliament Act gave the  capital its legislative powers and the first elections to the Delhi Legislative Assembly were held in 1993.
 
The Government of Delhi  does not have the same powers as  states like Punjab, West Bengal or Tamil Nadu. The union cabinet, which operates in New Delhi, a British-built part of Delhi, retains control of law and order and the police. Operating out of Delhi, the AAP and  BJP  are political rivals with a history of unsteady relations. 
 
AAP's victory in Punjab is a historic moment for Indian democracy. He defeated the Congress Party, the grand ole national party  that has ruled Punjab for the past five years, as well as regional powerhouse Akali Dal.The AAP has expanded from the country's capital to a neighboring state. In the eyes of many, the AAP is the new face of the opposition that can replace the ossified Congress party and  challenge  the BJP. 
 
AAP win in Punjab is significant. Although Punjab is one of the smallest states in India, it is of strategic importance for the country. With an estimated population of over 30 million, it borders Pakistan.Punjab is home to the  Sikhs, a five-century  religious and philosophical tradition founded by Guru Nanak with followers around the world. Punjab was also divided during the bloody partition of British India between India and Pakistan. Ishtiaq Ahmed described the Punjab tragedy  and that trauma continues to this day.

Pakistan fears the Punjab could be a springboard for a tank attack on Lahore, 15 miles from the border. India is concerned about the threat to Amritsar, home to the Golden Temple, the holiest Sikh shrine. In the 1980s, Pakistan supported the Sikh rebellion against India and the army was forced to storm the Golden Temple itself in 1984. Some staunch Sikh extremists still want an independent Sikh state of Khalistan. An untried new  party in the strategic state of Punjab is a dramatic new  development for Indian democracy.
 

Can  AAP replicate your model Delhi, Punjab? 

Many say that the AAP did a good job in Delhi. Newspapers such as The Hindu and The Print have published editorials on the success of the AAP's education reforms in Delhi. He also received praise for social measures such as  free electricity and water and improvements in health care. While many question the magnitude of the changes, it is clear that Punjab voters  have embraced the Delhi model.As a strategic state, Punjab offers both new opportunities and new challenges for the AAP. 
 
The AAP will now primarily oversee law,  order and the police. It's a big responsibility in a frontier with a creation story. Drug addiction has plagued Punjab in recent years,  as have allegations of political and bureaucratic corruption. The AAP must provide funds to  the Punjab police, which it should not  do in Delhi, where the law places control of the police and responsibility for their funding on the union government.
 
To put things in perspective, it's instructive to  look at the numbers. In the Indian financial year which started on April 1st and ended on March 31st, 2020/21, the budget of the Delhi Police Force exceeded US$1 billion (over Rs 80 billion). It is estimated that this spending will grow to more than US$1.4 billion (over Rs.110 billion) in the 2021-22 financial year. Federal funding for the police gave the AAP the freedom to fund social interventions for its constituents.
 
Also, Delhi has a much larger economy than Punjab. Delhi's 2019-20 Gross Domestic Product (GSDP) has been estimated at over US$110 billion (about Rs. Rupees). The National Capital Region of Delhi, which includes regions of the neighboring states of Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, has a population of almost 31 million.Of these, nearly 19 million live in Delhi, where the AAP is in power. With a smaller population and a larger economy, Delhi has a much higher GDP per capita than Punjab. The AAP will see running a much poorer country as something different than running a thriving state  capital.

Punjab once led the nation to prosperity. Up until years before its founding, Punjab had the country's highest GDP per capita, thanks to India's green revolution made possible by high-yield seeds, fertilizers and irrigation. This revolution brought other problems, which Atul Singh and Manu Sharma described in their  analysis of the 2021 land reforms. Despite these problems, Punjab ranked third in the country in GDP per capita until 2000-01. Today it fell to  16th place in the country.In addition, statistics from the Reserve Bank of India show that Punjab's growth rate has been one of the slowest in the country. 
 
Punjab's weaker GNP and slower growth rates pose a major challenge to the state's public finances. While Delhi's Merchandise and Sales Tax (GST) revenue was just over US$493 million (Rs.37.54 billion) as of December 2021 , Punjab's GST revenue totaled nearly US$207 million (Rs.15.73 billion).Punjab has lower income and higher expenses than Delhi. His tax debts declined from nearly US$14.8 billion (over Rs.1.12 trillion) on March 31, 201512 trillion rupees) on March 31, 2019. While Delhi is nearly debt free, Punjab is running large deficits and is heavily indebted. 
 
In addition, the Punjab budget is burdened with many hard expenses such as interest payments, salaries, pensions and energy subsidies. He benefited from farm subsidies that India's 15th Finance Commission deemed unsustainable. Agriculture in Punjab has drained groundwater, used electricity inefficiently, greatly increased pollution, caused health problems and is depleted.Neither industry nor services have filled this gap. 
,
AAP  won 92  of 117 seats in Punjab. He promised "jobs, education, health care, free electricity, freedom from the threat of drugs, and land reform." Given Punjab's precarious budgetary situation, it will be much more difficult for the AAP  to deliver on its promises in this border state than in Delhi, making it very difficult to  challenge  the BJP domestically.

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