MODIFIED INDIA HAS LOST STRENGTH ON THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE

India's foreign policy establishment is severely divided after seven years under Narendra Modi as the nation declines internationally.

India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, has served for seven years. His autocratic leadership has also brought the lingering discontent within the establishment of foreign policy to light. An open letter critical of Modi's foreign policy was signed by some Forum of Foreign Ambassadors of India members. To further suppress retired bureaucrats' dissent, the government issued the Central Civil Services (Pension) Amendment Rules, 2020 on May 31.

Even though they are uncommon, such outspoken disagreements are not new to India. However, its ailing economy and a series of downgrades on democratic values, human development, press freedom, and the hunger index by reputable international agencies will further diminish its global standing.

India's worldview has undergone a number of significant shifts over the decades. During the Cold War, it moved from the idealistic Non-Aligned Movement of the 1950s to a close relationship with the Soviet Union. India and the United States have now joined forces to form the Quad, a strategic alliance against China that also includes Japan and Australia. India also briefly toyed with the BRICS nations to form a group of developing nations—Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa—that appears to be dying quietly.

India has always been proud of its strategic independence. Because of his megalomania, Modi believed that he would suddenly elevate India to the status of a global power. Unfortunately, his time in office has resulted in a jumbled mess.

Strong Start

In today's world of modern warfare and geopolitics, Modi's early years were marked by inane talk about "Akhanda Bharat," the term used by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to refer to an independent India. These neighbors include nuclear-armed China and Pakistan. By extending Hinduism's influence throughout South Asia, this concept aims to restore ancient India to its former glory. Modi rode the wave of international goodwill to regularize the border with Bangladesh, barring such misplaced euphoria.

The Middle East was opening up to Indian influence in western Asia. A deal to develop Iran's strategic Chabahar port, which would make it easier to travel by land to Afghanistan, moved forward. Modi was the first Indian prime minister to travel to Israel in 2017. India's relationships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also improved. However, Beijing has succeeded in building more infrastructure in the region than New Delhi has since the Doklam standoff on the India-China border in 2017 that Modi's team successfully resolved. However, it might also be regarded as a strategic tie. The decades-old defense partnership between India and Russia evolved from a technology buyer to a recipient of technology transfer and, finally, a partner in defense research and development under Modi, despite US objections.

Throughout Modi's tenure, India and Pakistan have remained in a constant state of flux. His initial efforts, which included inviting the Prime Minister of Pakistan at the time, Nawaz Sharif, to his inauguration in 2014 and making a surprise visit to Lahore a year later, quickly failed. In the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, militants based in Pakistan carried out terrorist attacks in 2016. India responded by carrying out "surgical strikes" across the Line of Control (LoC), which divides the disputed Kashmir region from the rest of the country. In Kashmir in 2019, militants from Pakistan attacked Indian soldiers. India entered Pakistani airspace for the first time since 1971 to bomb locations that New Delhi claimed to be training grounds for terrorists.

There was little change in the situation between India and Pakistan. There are still tensions between the two nations. But Modi was re-elected in 2019 on the promise that India would bravely and swiftly respond to terrorist attacks by militants based in Pakistan.

The actual situation was far more nuanced. International observers came to the conclusion that India's two cross-border raids were ineffective despite the claims made by India and Pakistan. Pakistan's claim seemed flimsy because it prevented access to bombed locations. However, India's defense preparedness appeared to be lacking after Islamabad shot down an Indian fighter jet in February 2019 and captured an Indian pilot, who was later released. Despite this, Modi was successful in isolating Pakistan from the rest of the world and included it on the gray list of the Financial Action Task Force, a global organization that monitors the financing of terrorism, in 2018.

The relationship between India and the West did not much change. The Modi government was unable to move forward with the stalled trade agreement with the EU in Europe, with the exception of the Rafale warplane agreement in 2016. Fair enough, Brussels was busy rebuilding following the Great Recession and Brexit's chaos. There was a sense of optimism in the air across the Atlantic. US President Barack Obama reluctantly accepted Modi during his final term. Later, a trade war broke out despite the joking between Trump and Modi.

However, Modi built on the hard work of his predecessors, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, to strengthen defense and strategic cooperation between India and the United States. This relationship also developed as a result of China's growing threat. A bilateral Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement was signed in 2016 by Obama and Modi on nuclear liability issues, and a Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement was signed in 2018. The Quad seems like a natural extension of the closer partnership between the United States and India, India's Act East policy, and the United States' pivot to Asia.

What Modified?

India under Modi has fallen into disarray following a reasonably strong beginning. India's economic decline since 2017-18 and steadily rising majoritarianism are closely related to the country's failures in foreign policy. Modi's self-inflicted wounds outweigh Trump's erratic isolationist policies and India's growing geopolitical deficit with China.

Modi selectively expedited the citizenship applications of non-Muslims from the neighboring nations of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan in order to implement his narrow domestic agenda and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The CAA was criticized and deemed discriminatory due to the fact that it excluded Muslims—even those who were persecuted—from these nations.

Modi alienated Bangladesh as a result, which is rapidly modernizing and surpassing India on most human development and economic indicators. Through a diplomatic snub, Bangladesh quickly demonstrated its place in India and its desire to embrace China. Some of the damage was repaired by sustained diplomacy over the past year, Modi's recent trip to Bangladesh, and India's donation of COVID-19 vaccines. India's weak economy could still bring Bangladesh closer to China, even if tempering the CAA rhetoric helps.

The US took a tough stance against Pakistan under President Trump because of what it called “Islamabad’s failure to take action against militant groups.” Due to strained ties between Islamabad and Riyadh, Saudi assistance also ceased. Pakistan is dependent on China as a result. China's hold on Pakistan has been strengthened by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which runs through Gilgit and Baltistan, a disputed region over which both India and Pakistan claim sovereignty. The recent ceasefire agreement with Islamabad and the resumption of peace talks have not been approached by New Delhi from a position of strength. Instead, it is a subtly acknowledged fact that peace is in both parties' best interests.

Modi has lost the plot with Iran and is losing ground with Russia, despite maintaining strong relationships with Israel and the Arab world. With its economic power, Beijing is bringing the Kremlin into its sphere of influence with a 25-year strategic agreement with Tehran. India, a rising economic power prior to Modi, was able to make exceptions for itself in order to circumvent US sanctions against Iran and Russia. China has steadily increased its economic and geopolitical distance from India during Modi's tenure. India has kowtowed to the United States and lost its strategic autonomy as a result of its growing vulnerability to Beijing.

A favorable agreement between India and the UK may result from Britain's need for trade partners following its departure from the European Union. Under Modi, a free trade agreement between India and the EU has not changed significantly. The trade war that his predecessor started with India does not appear to be on the horizon for US President Joe Biden.

Despite the hype surrounding The Quad, India is the junior partner and has few economic advantages over others. If there is a full-scale conflict between India and China, the other Quad countries are unlikely to intervene, but New Delhi will increase its strategic and military cooperation with other democracies that share its values. The Indian economy's value to other partners will be limited by its size and strategic location unless it becomes efficient and closely integrates with the Quad countries.

In order to defeat the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the United States joined forces with religious fundamentalists and autocrats, particularly in China and Pakistan. India's democratic institutional capacity will be lip-serviced by the Quad countries in the new brewing cold war between Washington and Beijing. They will, however, collaborate with an authoritarian India to combat China if necessary, which will serve their narrow self-interests.

Relations Between India and China

Modi's greatest failure in foreign policy is India's strained relationship with China. He was forced to defy conventional wisdom and engage in a charm offensive with Chinese President Xi Jinping because of his misplaced overconfidence. Despite the deteriorating state of the Indian economy, Modi continued to expect Xi to treat India as an equal despite the Doklam warning. In the meantime, through its outreach to India's neighbors and offers of economic and strategic partnerships, China had already begun to reduce New Delhi's influence. In order to make Jammu and Kashmir a union territory, Modi eliminated Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in 2019. Amit Shah, his deputy, claimed that he would take back the Aksai Chin, which was controlled by China. Xi directly occupied Indian territory in Ladakh for nearly a year as a response.

India's decline and China's strength are best portrayed by their distinct approaches to bonds. Despite a raging pandemic, ongoing border disputes with India, and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 300%, China is selling its government bonds internationally at a negative interest rate. Despite India's debt-to-DGP ratio being below 100%, bond investors in India are demanding higher yields.

It was unlikely that India would lose territory to China due to its substantial military and tactical advantage. However, India paid dearly for Modi and Shah's arrogance and decision to prioritize domestic politics over national interest by purchasing emergency weapons during the Ladakh standoff.

Weak on the World Stage

Modi continues to propagate lies and project strength to voters through his speeches, photo ops with world leaders, and tweets. The BJP has raised millions of dollars in political donations to support Modi's formidable propaganda machine through anonymous electoral bonds, despite the significant decline in India's financial health.

The world is aware that India is led by a narcissist who has constructed a false domestic narrative regarding the global standing of the nation in order to continue winning elections. The West will continue to hope that India will become a democratic counterweight to China if it can get its finances in order and stops destroying independent institutions. However, only Indian voters can lead that battle.

Where does India go from here as it becomes more accustomed to the Quad? Lessons learned in the past are instructive as a new cold war develops. China cleverly used its leverage to strengthen its economy and authoritarian communist rule while the United States used China and Pakistan to dismantle the Soviet Union. In the meantime, Pakistan allowed its military and religious majorities to destroy the country internally.

Modi has weakened Indian foreign policy by promoting religious bigotry and tearing down democratic institutions. India will need to find a leader who understands that issues like a strong economy, an independent judiciary, and social stability cannot be separated from its foreign policy but are essential to it if voters want it to become a vibrant, democratic counterweight to China and a global player that does justice to its potential.