NOW, THE WORLD DEPENDS ON THE G20 BEING LED BY INDIA.

The world economy has been severely impacted by the Russia-Ukraine War. Advanced economies may experience a recession, 349 million people suffer from severe food insecurity, and there are severe fuel and fertiliser shortages. India, which is becoming a major force behind global economic expansion, may very well play a bridging role in the emergence of a multipolar world and provide leadership to the Global South while holding the G20 presidency in 2023.

[Kanwal Sibal is a former Foreign Minister of India. Vikram Sood is the former head of the Indian foreign intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing. Both are notorious political geeks, brilliant intellectuals, and prolific writers.] 

 Last year, the World Food Program (WFP) revealed that "828 million people don't know where their next meal will come from." This number refers to the year 2021.Since then, that number has increased. The Russo-Ukrainian War  disrupted the production and export of food and fertilizers, as well as the supply of natural gas and oil. Food, fertilizer and fuel prices have skyrocketed. 

Many poor people simply cannot afford their daily bread, leading to a “seismic famine”. According to  WFP, “A record 349 million people in 79 countries face acute food insecurity, up from 287 million in 2021.In fact, "more than 900,000 people around the world are struggling to survive in conditions of starvation."

India has pledged to use its G20 presidency "to raise the voice of the countries of the South" hardest hit by the current unrest. In that capacity, he hosted the Voice of the Global South summit in New Delhi in January to "generate ideas from the developing world" to address the major challenges that have emerged over the past year.

 What is the G20 and what is the South of the World? 

 The G20 website informs us that the Group of Twenty (G20) includes 19 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the UK and the US - and the EU.The G20 as a whole comprises “about 85% of world GDP, more than 75% of world trade and about two-thirds of the world population”. 

The Global South refers to the poorest regions of Latin America, Asia, Africa and Oceania. It used to be referred to as  Third World, which was seen as pejorative. Northern regions like Europe and North America and their East Asian counterparts like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are more prosperous than southern regions. Although Australia and New Zealand are in the Southern Hemisphere, they are considered  part of the Global North.

 G20 and southern countries, it's a lot more. The former gained importance after the  two financial crises. In 1997, the Asian financial crisis devastated the world's largest continent. From Thailand to South Korea, economies have collapsed and,  according to the great Singaporean statesman Lee Kuan Yew, in some countries “the social fabric has been torn apart”. This prompted finance ministers and central bankers to meet in 1999 to found the G20.The 2007-2008 financial crisis gave the G20 an unexpected boost. Heads of state met at the 2008 G20 summit, making it the "premier forum for international economic cooperation."

Before the 2007-2008 crisis, the world's most advanced economies formed the G7 group. This financial collapse in the United States and Europe has increased the importance of Asia. Now Washington, New York, London, Brussels and Berlin needed the Asian economies to implement anti-recession policies. Above all, they needed China. Today, the G20 is witnessing this gradual eastward shift in  economic focus.Of the  five largest economies in the world, three - China, Japan and India - are in Asia. The other two are the United States and Germany. 

Unlike the clearly defined G20, the Global South is an amorphous entity. When this group of economies was first merged, it was much poorer. Today, some Southern economies  rival those of the West in size and complexity.India is one such economy. India is a member of  both  the G20 and  the Global South. On the one hand, it is the world's fifth largest economy  with a fast-growing infrastructure, a thriving IT sector, a cutting-edge pharmaceutical industry and a fast-growing economy. On the other hand, India's per capita income was USD 2,256.6 in 2021 according to the World Bank.Of course, India is the bridge between the G20 and the countries of the South. 

Bloomberg says India could become the  next power in the world economy. India's strong economic growth and the relative slowdown of many aging G7 economies will make the G20 more relevant. It would play a bigger role in global economic affairs and India could become one of the natural leaders of the G20. The Global South will also look to India for leadership, as was the case in 1947 when India abandoned British colonial rule and ushered in a great era of Asian and African independence in.

 Inclusive Development for the Global South 

The Voice of the Global South The Summit took place at a time when headlines about the global recession abounded. The World Bank's Global Economic Outlook, released in January, calls for growth to slow "to the third lowest rate in nearly three decades, surpassed only by the global recessions of 2009 and 2020." Against this background, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has viewed India as "a relatively bright spot in the global economy". Even as China's economy slows, leading 

 analysts like the Financial Times' Martin Wolf believe that India "is projected to be the world's fastest-growing major economy for the next few decades."

India is more  than a growth story. Prashant Singhal by Ernst & Young argues that the development of digital infrastructure  will transform India.  India has already rolled out Aadhaar, the  largest biometric identification system in the world. The government has opened bank accounts for millions of people and given them benefits directly. Payment and financial services  system RuPay is much more efficient than Mastercard, Visa or  other Western systems.It could become a model for many southern countries looking for alternatives to expensive western middlemen. 

India's response to COVID-19 has become a model for many countries in the Global South. The country has been able to develop and produce vaccines on a large scale. As many magazines are now reporting, "India has conducted the  largest COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the world with 3,006 vaccination centers in  its states and union territories." This  mass vaccination in 2021 was a great success.Every citizen's vaccinations were uploaded to a national database that was easily accessible via an app, rather than primitively relying on paper in the much more affluent United States. Notably,  national immunizations in India cost a fraction of their equivalent in the United States and have much higher acceptance rates. 

Through the Vaccine Maitri initiative, India has supplied "more than 282 million  doses of vaccine to 101 countries and two United Nations agencies". India has also shipped vaccines to Afghanistan, despite the Taliban's hostile attitude towards the country. It has also shipped tens of thousands of tons of grain to Afghanistan, averting famine and a humanitarian catastrophe in the region.This generosity has secured India's leading position in the Global South. 

 The New Delhi summit aimed to exploit India's soft power by emphasizing South-South cooperation. The idea behind this initiative is simple. The poorest countries have much to learn from each other, both in the areas of traditional medicine and health systems, as well as in the areas of vocational training and financial inclusion.  Pavlovian imitation of the Global North is ruthless, expensive, and sometimes even counterproductive.More interaction and more cohesion between the countries of the south of the world are the order of the day.

 India: The Glue in a Multipolar World 

 As retired CIA officer Glenn Carle has repeatedly observed, India is a rapidly growing world power. Many forget India's deep ties to all major powers and major global institutions. The United States is India's most important economic partner. China, its northern neighbor and strategic rival, is India's second largest economic partner.India has  good relations with EU powers, especially France. Post-Brexit, the UK and India completed six rounds of  Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations.

India is also  deepening its ties in the Indo-Pacific region. The India-Australia Free Trade Agreement came into effect on December 22, 2022. Relations between Japan and India have deepened in recent years. Under the leadership of the late Shinzo Abe, Japan developed a special relationship with India. During Abe's second term as prime minister from 2012 to 2020, Japan accounted for more than 10% of India's foreign direct investment (FDI).In the coming years, Indo-Japanese relations are expected to intensify. 

In a deeply divided world, India has worked hard to bring different sides together. As is now known, the Russo-Ukrainian war created enormous tensions in the world system. The US,  EU and NATO are backing Ukraine against Russia. They  pressured India to submit to their position.India has repeatedly called for peace but has refused to take sides. New Delhi has sent aid to Ukraine while maintaining historic ties with Moscow and buying Russian oil at a discount to avoid runaway inflation in the country. 

India participates in many international organizations. Few know of India's loyal service to the United Nations. Since 1948, more than 200,000 Indians have served in 49 of the 71 United Nations peacekeeping missions.India is also  part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a group of four countries - Japan, India, Australia and the United States - interested in a "free and open Indo-Pacific region". As a member of the Quad, India is also a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In fact, India  recently invited the Pakistani Foreign Minister to the SCO Summit. 

India is adept at managing relations in the troubled Middle East. It has improved its ties with Gulf powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in recent years.India has also managed to maintain stable relations with Iran. At the same time, India has improved its relations with Israel. India is now  part of I2U2, a new partnership between India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States. 

The result of all these relationships is simple: India is an integral part of our inextricably linked, interdependent and multipolar world.