WHY DO MEXICO AND BRAZIL REACT TO COVID-19 SO SLOWLY?

With notable exceptions in Brazil and Mexico, the majority of countries around the world have taken serious measures to stop the coronavirus from spreading. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has quarantined almost the entire world. The current crisis is often compared to historical events such as the two world wars, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and 9/11. Worst-case modeling of the spread of the novel coronavirus predicts millions of deaths and immeasurable economic consequences worldwide. 

World leaders have taken different approaches to the epidemic. There was quick and decisive action like  South Korea, questionable attitudes like  the US, and late action - a pattern that is more common around the world.With the exception of Brazil and Mexico, most countries stressed the importance of containing the spread of the virus.

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"Little Flu" 

 Mexico's center-left President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has struck a dovish tone in the face of the pandemic. Mexico has been slow to adopt social distancing. On March 11, the World Health Organization classified COVID-19 as a pandemic, resulting in the cancellation of thousands  of sporting and cultural events around the world. However, over the weekend of March 14, 140,000 people in Mexico  attended  Vive Latino, a music festival themed around Guns 'n' Roses.As of March 15, there were more than 169,000 cases and 6,500 deaths from the coronavirus worldwide; Mexico has recorded 56 cases and no deaths. 

It can be said that the situation at that time was not serious enough to take strict measures. But even after that, the Mexican President maintained his usual attitude. On March 22, Lopez Obrador encouraged people to eat out and keep the economy going: "Don't panic and please keep going out." It wasn't until the number of cases in the country surpassed 800 that the president changed his stance.In sharper tones, he calls for people to stay at home as long as possible so as not to overload the health system.

Finally, on March 30, the Mexican government  declared a health emergency, banning gatherings of more than 50 people and stepping up measures already taken by several  mayors and governors. For example, on March 23, Mexico City closed gyms, movie theaters, nightclubs, sports centers and other public places when the city recorded 45 cases. 

But even that embarrassing delay pales in comparison to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's delay. A few days after a trip to the United States where Bolosnaro met with President Donald Trump, his press secretary, who was on the same plane, tested positive for COVID-19. Three days later, Bolsonaro came out to greet crowds that had gathered outside his apartment to shake hands with hundreds of people knowing  he might have the virus.The President said he would be "well or sick" with people. 

Criticized by the Brazilian authorities, Bolsonaro stepped up his efforts and made an official public statement on radio and television, calling the disease  a "little flu" or "little cold" and urging people to return to normal immediately, including reopening schools, suggesting isolating only the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. The move was a political decision that emphasized the importance of keeping the economy running and succumbing to its strongest supporters like as  well as  the country's poor, who will be hardest hit by the quarantine measures. 

There are undoubtedly concerns about the economic impact on people working in the informal sector, small business owners and workers. Following in the footsteps of governments around the world, on March 16 Brazil announced its intention to inject some $30 billion into the economy, with $17 billion to help the poorest and $12 billion to support businesses and jobs to get, and  1 billion  to work to fight the virus directly.Parliament also approved additional spending. There are fears that spreading the virus  to densely populated favelas could have catastrophic consequences. However, despite these actions by his own government, Bolsonaro launched the "Brazil Can't Stop" social media campaign,  which was suspended  by a federal judge on March 28 after it faced massive criticism from various authority figures, including former political allies. The next day, the President visited a market on the outskirts of Brasilia and spoke to vendors and fans to stimulate economic activity. He didn't shake hands or hug people this time, but President also flouted th advice of his own Department of Health, prompting Twitter to remove  video of the event as it violated COVID-19 safety guidelines.

Hailed as the leader of the "coronavirus denial movement," Bolsonaro's 

coronavirus denial movement has lost political allies  to its extreme approach, especially as the number of infections and deaths continues to rise. As of March 31, Brazil had 5,717 cases and 201 deaths. Several states such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have declared states of emergency. Mexico still has  relatively low case numbers. As of  March 31, 1,215 infections had been registered in the country, resulting in 29 deaths.

Over the past few days, both countries have seen  sharp increases in COVID-19 cases, suggesting that it is likely to get worse in the near future. Compared to Italy, which currently has the highest mortality rate in the world, Brazil and Mexico have even larger populations (possibly 210 and respectively. Although the similarities are strong, 21% of Italy's population is over the age of 65,- the group  at highest risk for COVID-19 - compared to 8.6% in Brazil  and 7.2% in Mexico, raising hopes that the disease is not peaking. Peak there is also a high mortality rate.

Another worrying aspect is the geographic location. Mexico shares a huge border with the United States, which is now the epicenter of the pandemic. Just a few days ago, Mexicans with face masks and the words "Stay at home" demanded the closure of the US border. Brazil's neighbor Venezuela is just as problematic. The Bolivarian Republic is caught in a humanitarian and economic crisis that has caused over 4.6 million people to flee their homes in recent years, mainly to neighboring countries Colombia, Peru and Ecuador.

Information on the number of infections and deaths  from Nicolas Maduro's ailing government  is unreliable, but reports largely point to shortages of hospital beds, masks, essential medicines and ventilators in a health system already on the brink after years of crisis . The rise in cases in the country could have a major impact on Brazil, which welcomed a wave of Venezuelan refugees in late 2018. 

Confronting an enemy like COVID-19 requires the cooperation of political actors. The  political turmoil in  Mexico and Brazil, characterized by strong polarization, could delay the urgent measures needed to respond adequately  to a possible worsening of the health crisis. Given the delay in implementing unified measures to contain the epidemic, the two countries are expected to experience their worst crisis in the coming months.