WILL INDIA AND CHINA START A WAR FOR RESOURCES?

Time and time again, Indian leadership has raised issues concerning Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). recently, Indian  Defence minister Rajnath Singh once again reiterated Indian claims over POK. in the past, numerous cupboard ministers, including external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, have also reinstated the intention of Indian repossession of  POK. India has never absolutely given up its declare  over POK, and it's miles viable that one day, the Indian flag may be unfurled all over again inside the town of Skardu. 

sadly, a good deal of the existing research published through Indian and foreign pupils covers best the Indian aspect of Kashmir. The POK has by some means escaped a careful and vital analysis due to lack of initiative by using the mainstream media and the narrative of Indian aggression constructed and sustained by means of external powers. The most effective news channel broadcasting any records regarding the situations in POK is the India Meteorological branch, and nevertheless, it best relays the climate forecast. The atrocities, human rights violations, ethnic cleansing and annihilation of Indian way of life have all been swept beneath the rug, and feature in the end didn't improve alarm concerning the movements of the Pakistani army. 

The Strategic significance of Gilgit and Baltistan 

The location of Gilgit Baltistan (GB) connects the Xinjiang vicinity of China to Pakistan, offering China with smooth get admission to to the Indian Ocean vicinity (IOR). This situation weakens India’s position of energy in each maritime and continental affairs. With presence in Gwadar, a port city this is “strategically positioned on the apex of the Arabian Sea and on the mouth of the Persian Gulf,” China will now not most effective be able to monitor the region, however can even severely restriction India’s  retaliation options in the course of wartime. The modern-day day monetary development simplest sustains because of large scale manufacturing and impeccable human capital, and Pakistan has neither. consequently, Gwadar is not likely to come to be a trading hotspot, or maybe a giant cargo hub.. 

moreover, the GB  place has  traditionally fallen  on the Silk street trade path, by which Indian way of life reached vital Asia and beyond. now not having a physical presence in GB imbibes a parochial  mindset and bounds India’s  political have an impact on to South Asian geopolitics. presently, Indian trade with important Asia is minuscule because of a selection of reasons, but the maximum huge inhibitor is a nonexistent land course. that is additionally the primary cause why Indian involvement in Afghanistan turned into so minimal, even though India’s  concerns in the battle have been lots extra instantaneous than different countries who intervened.

The GB vicinity is likewise home to a treasure of glaciers which sustain Pakistan’s surface water-primarily based economy. This location is also domestic to huge hydropower capability because of the presence of the Indus River and its many tributaries. The controversial Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 negotiated beneath the sector financial institution awarded a whopping eighty% of water rights to Pakistan, robbing India of any edge when it comes to the hydrography of the subcontinent. those losses are of extreme importance, given India’s dependency at the place as a vital water source. 

China’s lengthy game approach

In might also 2022, China introduced that it plans to connect the chinese city of Kashgar with Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan and the largest town in relevant Asia, thru railways. This strategic development is supposed to ensure China’s continued upward thrust as a global superpower. The chinese Communist party (CCP) is of the opinion that its presence inside the Pacific isn't enough to update america as international leader. for this reason, China is actively connecting its hinterlands to more industrial regions. the use of those new railways connecting Kashgar to Tashkent, China can be able to reach Turkey and Europe more without problems with the aid of warding off its vulnerability within the IOR. For these motives, the GB place is essential to chinese enlargement. 

China is likewise privy to the fact that, notwithstanding their quest for enlargement, the geography of the IOR cannot be defied, and will stay the number one economic and geopolitical theater of conflict for the japanese facet of the continent. within the phrases of nineteenth century naval philosopher Alfred Mahan, manage over the IOR is “the important thing to the seven seas.” As of nowadays, the brand new land routes being built aren't designed to carry massive quantities of cargo. which means that for now, China will hold to conduct change through routes in the IOR. 

China is actively executing a twin approach inside the GB location. Its first goal is to establish a connection with Persia, and its 2d, extra long-time period intention is to encircle India, denying it any strategic intensity. As part of this method, the “25 year %” created among China and Iran performs a totally vital function. 

China’s push into West Asia is driven by using its want for power security in addition to its long time quest to update the us as worldwide hegemon. A land path, through GB, is the most profound manner of putting forward its international function. indeed, there are different factors at work in China’s continual push toward Iran; but, China’s avid quest to boom land-based totally connectivity shows that the primary rationale of the chinese  is to perturb India. 

The chinese are also seeking to use Pakistan as a base to extract sources out of Afghanistan, and the Belt and avenue Initiative (BRI) is a essential part of that method. The BRI, the growing present day version of the Silk street, intends to attach China to all essential monetary facilities of Asia, Africa and Europe through maritime and land routes. It widely defines 5 priority regions of investments in connectivity, coverage coordination, unimpeded alternate, monetary integration and connecting people. 

numerous chinese language pupils agree with that “India is ready out to replace China,” and as a consequence ought to be mitigated. in the GB region, China sees an opportunity to ensure that India is weakened and much less possibly to take action in opposition to China’s persevered danger. 

Unsurprisingly, chinese language investments in Pakistan are above $60 billion, supplying China with a major have an impact on in Pakistan’s management of the GB area. according to numerous reviews from June 2022, Pakistan turned into severely thinking about the rent of the GB area to China to repay its “mounting debts.” but, Pakistan’s number one hesitation in finalizing this settlement is the fear that when empowering China, the United international locations (UN) will discontinue all economic help being supplied to Pakistan from the worldwide economic Fund (IMF). For all of these motives, it's far vital that India prevent the destiny of the GB to be decided with the aid of such avaricious powers.  

battle on the Horizon?

In June 2020, reviews indicated the presence of chinese language shipping and fighter plane on the Skardu air base, increasing fears of a probable  front conflict along the road of real control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, an Indian union territory. these reports however, have been now not tested with the aid of the Indian government or military.

thinking about chinese language investments in Pakistan, it's miles in all likelihood that China will station its  troops inside the GB place at Skardu airbase even at some point of peacetime. The Galwan Valley dispute of 2020, wherein Indian and chinese infantrymen fought using fatal hand-to-hand combat, also sparked issues of imminent conflict. Even extra alarming are reports that Pakistani squaddies had been noticed consorting with people’s Liberation army (PLA) troops in Tibet, indicating a worrisome synchronization among the 2 hostile nations.

Many speculate that if India had now not misplaced manage of the GB vicinity, the region would no longer have become a breeding ground for terrorism, and could have averted thousands of casualties. moreover, India would have had a handy land corridor to Afghanistan, sitting just 20 km away from imperative Asia. it is also viable that the Sino-Indian struggle of 1962 could have been avoided, or at least should have had a one of a kind final results. India’s beyond errors will keep to haunt the country in subsequent two a long time if the subcontinent’s political map stays the identical. 

India has tried to establish alternative routes to imperative Asia through Chabhar, an Iranian port town, by using joining it with a railway line to Afghanistan and then crossing into the important Asian vicinity (automobile). however, Afghanistan’s volatile records threatens the safety of these routes, and India can not afford to grow to be dependent on a regime as brutal as the Taliban. consequently, India’s best change course nevertheless lies inside the GB vicinity, a location of big strategic value concerning 3 nuclear-armed powers. 

India’s potential for monetary balance is based on its get admission to to important substances, which includes precious stones and rare earth minerals. the automobile is complete of vital substances, enough to maintain a worldwide transition from fossils to smooth strength. between 1850 and 2015, India has contributed most effective three% of worldwide carbon emissions. however, India’s anticipated monetary increase will absolutely make a contribution to a upward push in according to capita and historical carbon emissions, each consequences which the auto offers answers to. 

any other crucial aid this is abundant inside the GB place is the supply of  freshwater. The Indus river gadget, Pakistan’s primary source of water, has major tributaries located inside the India-controlled territory of Kashmir. This area also has a number of the most important glaciers on the earth outside of the polar regions. The higher Indus Basin (UIB), situated in Gilgit, is domestic to many small streams that float from the melting glaciers, and feature the capacity to generate  50,000 GW of hydroelectricity. get admission to to this high-quality electricity supply affords a gigantic benefit to whichever state controls the vicinity at the time.

For India, water safety is likely to end up a primary issue in upcoming a long time. several reports by the UN and Indian authorities companies have concluded that India is probably to stand intense water shortages in the upcoming decades. The mismanagement of most important bodies of water in Indian towns, speedy and poorly planned urbanization and out of control populace boom is simplest adding gas to an already dire situation. 

In 2019, the Indian authorities’s public policy think tank, NITI Aayog, located that almost 60% of towns in India have already run out of floor water. Even more threatening to the approaching water crisis in India are China’s plans to construct dams over the Mabja Zangbo, the principle tributary to the Ganges River. India is currently facing many fundamental threats to water safety – but will this growing anxiety improve into a complete-blown water battle?

India and China are poised to have an increasingly competitive relationship in the upcoming a long time, and Gilgit and Baltistan will indeed be a ordinary aspect of contestation. China will do the whole lot in its power to make certain its manipulate over Gilgit and Baltisan. For India, I believe that the maximum  rich future lies within the reintegration of the upper Himalayan area, which has water, navigable land routes and strategic significance a ways beyond some other place of Jammu and Kashmir (J&ok).

In 1963, Pakistan ‘proficient’ to China the Shaksgam Valley, a place ofJ&k wealthy in water capability and other sources, so that it will relaxed a effective ally in destiny conflicts. The Shaksgam Valley is home to 242 glaciers, and is known as the third maximum glaciated location inside the global, after the North and South poles. 

In 2021, China unveiled plans to assemble the world’s biggest polysilicon manufacturing facility in a inexperienced oasis of the Taklamakan wasteland, placed within the western part of China. it's far anticipated that the manufacturing of a single 30 cm silicon wafer (used to make valuable microchips) requires about 10,000 liters of fresh water, for which China will rely on the oasis. when completed, China will attain superb advantages from the facility as they affordably manufacture microchips for itself and the rest of the arena. while China also faces water shortage, its profession of Tibet offers it with manage over tons of the liquid veins all through Asia. 

inside the following few a long time, India will want principal Asia to supply electricity and other sources extra than ever before. China is already taking advantage of those sources, as it has been inside the method of building a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Xinjiang on account that 2010. If India intends to become a simply influential strength over the  POK,along with the regions of the GB and the Shaksgam Valley, it ought to take vital motion to regain get right of entry to to lots -wanted assets. 

As early as 1904, British geographer Helford Mackinder underlined the significance of Eurasia and the automobile. possibly it became India’s strategic blindness, bureaucratic hassles, nonexistent countrywide security measures, or isolationist attitude because of repeated invasions which culminated into the lack of the GB place. regardless of the motives had been, India’s forget about of the resource-wealthy location  became a vital mistake that has haunted the country for many years. 

India must shed its addiction of disregarding country wide threats until the damage has been achieved. with the intention to proper our past mistakes, we need to put together to apply all means feasible to reintegrate the place of Gilgit Baltistan.