UNDERSTANDING ARMENIA'S PAST AND PRESENT CONFLICT IN AZERBAIJAN

This area of the earth was formerly contested by ancient empires. These days, Pakistan and India have joined forces with the US, Turkey, Iran, Russia, and Russia. A poisonous brew is created when politics, geopolitics, ethnicity, and religion are combined.

Records in no way ends, as a minimum in the antique global. On February 18, Reuters tells us that “leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan bickered over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh.” Azerbaijan has blocked the Lachin hall, a mountain street that hyperlinks Armenia and the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies in Azerbaijan.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally diagnosed as a part of Azerbaijan, but its one hundred twenty,000 inhabitants are predominantly ethnic Armenians. They broke faraway from Baku within the early Nineteen Nineties and Yerevan supported their fellow Armenians. This brought about a battle wherein Armenia emerged on pinnacle. with the aid of 1993, Armenia now not best gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh however also occupied 20% of Azerbaijan.

In 2020, conflict broke out again. thanks to Turkish drones and huge-scale navy operations, Azerbaijan regained an awful lot of the territory it lost in the early Nineties. Now, its blockade of the Lachin corridor is inflaming passions once more.

US Secretary of kingdom Antony Blinken were given Armenian top Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to meet in Munich. The post-Davos Munich safety conference turned into a handy excuse for the leaders to get collectively. both facets claimed that they had made development toward a peace deal. yet a war of phrases broke out. Aliyev “accused Armenia of occupying Azerbaijan’s lands for nearly 30 years.” Pashinyan claimed that “Azerbaijan has followed a revenge coverage” and became the use of the assembly for “enflaming intolerance, hate, aggressive rhetoric.”

A Tortured past: Christianity, Islam and Communism

both Encyclopedia Britannica and Wikipedia inform us that Armenia have become the first united states of america to establish Christianity as its state religion. reputedly, in 300 CE as in step with the previous and 301 advert as according to the latter, Saint Gregory the Illuminator satisfied King Tiridates III to transform to Christianity. The Armenian Apostolic Church is an independent Oriental Orthodox Christian church and has many similarities to the Russian Orthodox Church.

If Armenia is Christian, Azerbaijan is Muslim. in the early 16th century, Ismail I, the founding father of the Safavid Dynasty conquered Azerbaijan. Ismail I proclaimed the Twelver denomination of Shia Islam as the legit religion of the Persian Empire. even as Iran is nearly completely Shia and Sunnis are persecuted, Azerbaijan follows a more syncretic version of Islam. the usa nation branch’s 2021 report on worldwide religious Freedom tells us that Azerbaijan’s “constitution stipulates the separation of faith and nation and the equality of all religions earlier than the law.” It also tells us that of the ninety six% Muslim, 65% is Shia and 35% Sunni. there is little internecine Muslim conflict, though non-Muslims nonetheless have a difficult time in the u . s ..

inside the nineteenth century, Russia commenced gobbling up Azerbaijan as the Persian Empire weakened beneath the Qajar dynasty. Sunnis fled from Russian-managed territory to Azerbaijan. As Russia took over, a current Azeri nationalism arose. It emphasised a common Turkic history. Ties with Ottoman Turkey deepened while those with Qajar Persia weakened. To these days, Azerbaijan stays toward Turkey than to Iran.

Azerbaijan also keeps near ties with Moscow. It has spent a good deal of the ultimate two centuries beneath Moscow’s thumb. After the 1917 Russian Revolution, Azerbaijan declared independence in 1918. This did now not last long. below Moscow’s as an alternative heavy hand, the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic changed into formed.

Armenia too is closely intertwined with Moscow. until world war I, Armenia become part of the Ottoman Empire. yet warfare infected suspicions approximately the loyalty of Amenians to Istanbul. a few Armenian volunteers have been serving inside the Imperial Russian military. The  infamous 1915 Tehcir regulation ordered the forced relocation of the Ottoman Empire’s Armenian populace to the Ottoman provinces of Syria and Iraq. dying marches into the wasteland and massacres brought about the deaths of 800,000 to at least one.five million humans. forced Islamization of girls and kids sought to erase Armenian cultural identification and make them dependable topics of the Ottoman sultan who became then the caliph of the entire Islamic world. This mass murder and cultural destruction has grow to be called the Armenian genocide.

global struggle I went badly for each Ottoman Turkey and Tsarist Russia. The 1920 Treaty of Sèvres “furnished for an impartial Armenia, for an self sustaining Kurdistan, and for a Greek presence in jap Thrace and at the Anatolian west coast, as well as Greek manipulate over the Aegean islands commanding the Dardanelles.” The Turks rejected this unfair treaty and fought back. Peace best came with the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne that mounted the bounds of modern-day Turkey. A yr earlier, the Soviet crimson army had annexed Armenia at the side of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Universalist communism snuffed out nationalism on this a part of the arena.

Communism Collapses, Nationalism Rises

In 1923, the Soviet Union mounted the Nagorno-Karabakh independent Oblast inside Azerbaijan. about 95% of its population changed into Armenian. For the subsequent 60 years, the area was peaceful way to the heavy-surpassed Soviet rule. during the disastrous 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghanistan conflict, Moscow’s authority weakened appreciably. In 1988, Nagorno-Karabakh’s regional legislature surpassed a decision to sign up for Armenia. Tensions rose but the Soviets kept matters beneath manipulate.

whilst the Soviet Union collapsed, all hell broke unfastened. Armenia and Azerbaijan completed independent statehood, and went to struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenians on this vicinity declared a breakaway state of Artsakh. This become unacceptable to Azerbaijan. like the fall apart of Yugoslavia, the outcomes have been tragic. The warfare triggered over 30,000 casualties and created masses of lots of refugees. As stated earlier, Armenia held the top hand. 

by using 1993, Armenia had won control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan’s geographic location. Peace handiest got here in 1994 whilst Russia brokered a ceasefire that has become referred to as the Bishkek Protocol. This left Nagorno-Karabakh with de facto independence with a self-proclaimed authorities in Stepanakert. but, this enclave was nonetheless heavily reliant on near economic, political and navy ties with Armenia.

each Armenia and Azerbaijan had been financial backwaters below Soviet rule. In 2011, Azerbaijan struck gold inside the shape of gas. Baku released what has grow to be referred to as the Southern gas hall. Azerbaijan wrangled a cope with the eu fee to deliver fuel as a long way away as Italy. The usa used gasoline proceeds to shop for arms from each Turkey and Russia in addition to modernize its military.

In early 2016, a four-day war broke out in Nagorno-Karabakh. maximum analysts say that Azerbaijan caused this conflict with the tacit, if now not overt, acquiescence of Moscow. for decades, Baku had “been promising to liberate the territories occupied by the Armenians.” Neither were the Azerbaijani troops able to interrupt through Armenian defenses in Nagorno-Karabakh, nor have been the Armenians able to release a counteroffensive. The truce reestablished the fame quo.

In 2018, #MerzhirSerzhin—anti-government protests that have come to be called the Velvet Revolution—broke out in Armenia and swept the vintage elites out of power. Serzh Sargsyan reluctantly stepped down as prime minister and Pashinyan took over. the new government sought to loosen ties with Russia with out antagonizing Moscow, fortify family members with Europe, and improve family members with neighboring nations, inclusive of Iran and Georgia.

Democracy in Armenia did now not lead to peace in the area. As stated in advance, war broke out once more in 2020. Azerbaijani forces crossed not best into the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh of Nagorno-Karabakh, but additionally into Armenia. Azerbaijani artillery moves hit cities and villages deep within Armenian territory. more than 7,000 humans died and hundreds, if now not lots, had been wounded. Azerbaijan recaptured maximum of the territory it had misplaced within the Nineteen Nineties. 3 ceasefires brokered by using Russia, France and america failed. 

finally, Russia pushed via a ceasefire and sent 2,000 of its troops as peacekeepers. Armenia had to guarantee “the safety of shipping links” among the western regions of Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhichevan that lies within Armenia.

A peculiar String Quartet: Russia, Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan

seeing that 1991, Russia have been Armenia’s foremost safety and strength company. The shared Orthodox Christian way of life has long made Yerevan Moscow’s most dependable companion within the region. Armenia is “the sole Russian best friend in the vicinity, the handiest host of a Russian navy base, and “the most effective South Caucasus country to belong to the Russian-led Collective protection Treaty company.”

yet evidently avenue protests for democracy despatched alarm bells ringing inside the Kremlin. Russian giant Gazprom hiked gasoline costs in 2019, forcing Armenia to make overtures to its southern neighbor Iran. Worse, Russia became a primary weapons supplier to Azerbaijan. This led to “a as an alternative unexpected crisis in Armenian-Russian members of the family.” Intelligence resources communicate approximately a deal among Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to lower back Azerbaijan due to the fact the previous wanted to train Armenia a lesson. Putin did not want Armenia to follow the Ukraine instance and form the so-called wave of democracy that could sweep him out of office.

Turkey declared the 2020 ceasefire deal to be a “sacred fulfillment” for its best friend Azerbaijan. In his traditionally colorful language, Erdoğan described Ankara’s assist for Azerbaijan as part of Turkey’s quest for its “deserved region within the international order.” In a nutshell, Armenia-Azerbaijan has come to be a theater wherein big powers are yet again gambling every other version of the notable sport. once the Ottoman Empire, the Persian Empire and the Russian Empire met here within the Caucasus, and jostled for dominance. any other jostling has now started with Turkey, Iran and Russia—successors to the 3 empires—gambling key roles.

Others have got involved. Unsurprisingly, one in every of them is the usa. On Sept. 11, 2022, Mikael Zolyan of the Carnegie Endowment for global Peace defined how the West had sidelined Russia in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In reality, the eu is gambling a distant second mess around. because the put up-Davos Blinken-led negotiations in Munich have simply validated, america is calling the shots, at least as of now. evidently, Russia is not too thrilled.

different actors are involved too. Azerbaijan is permitting Ukraine’s navy to achieve gasoline from its gasoline stations at no cost. furthermore, Ukraine has constantly supported “the integrity of Azerbaijan’s across the world diagnosed territory during the Nagorno-Karabakh war” regardless of having the fifth largest Armenian diaspora inside the global. Georgia is in Ukraine’s camp and is pursuing each european and NATO club. Armenia is domestic to a primary Russian navy base that has ground forces, tanks, air defense, missiles, helicopters and Mig-29 multi-role combatants. these are Armenia’s coverage towards total Turkish-Azerbaijani domination. no matter heartburn over Russia’s betrayal in 2020, Armenian public opinion still favors Russia over Ukraine within the modern ongoing struggle. The waters within the Caucasus have become very muddy.

A definitely worldwide fight club

Involvement of distant powers is making the waters muddier. Over the previous couple of years, Pakistan has been self-consciously searching up to Turkey to craft its Islamic identity. The northern a part of the Indian subcontinent was conquered by means of mamluk (i.e. manumitted slave) Turks in 1192. In current years, Pakistan has been turning to these remote Turkish roots and Erdoğan is even more famous than the Turkish soap operas which can be captivating Pakistan. The Turkish leader is seen as a true representative of the Muslim world just as ancient television drama Dirilis Ertugrul is considered as glorifying “the Muslim fee machine and the Ottoman Empire.” 

it is essential to understand that Muslims in British India, cutting-edge day India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, launched the 1919 Khilafat motion to restore the caliph to his throne in Turkey. They taken into consideration the Ottoman sultan to be their religious chief. Erdoğan has emerged as a new caliph for Pakistanis, many of whom are willing to combat and die for him.

The honest Observer Intelligence (FOI) danger monitor concluded that Turkey and Pakistan had been institutionalizing strategic family members and developing the traits of a navy alliance. With the continuing deterioration of Pakistan’s monetary and political scenario, the supply and willingness of young guys to volunteer for jihadi causes is growing too.

unluckily for Armenia, Pakistan has the functionality to guide Turkey and Azerbaijan with big numbers of nicely-skilled regular or abnormal troops in any destiny battle. Pakistani normal navy personnel already supplement neighborhood forces in Saudi Arabia and different Arab international locations. The Pakistani state has wealthy experience of schooling jihadi volunteers in unconventional battle and then sending them to combat in help of Islamic reasons around the arena. these abnormal forces have appeared in Afghanistan, India, and Yemen, every now and then working with Pakistani unique forces. With appropriate incentives, those opponents can be deployed towards Armenia to aid Azerbaijani and Turkish goals, probable in mixture with elements of the Pakistani military.

fortunately for Armenia, India has determined to help this beleaguered Christian state. In September 2022, the two nations signed a $245 million really worth of Indian artillery systems, anti-tank rockets and ammunition to the Armenian navy.  months later, Armenia signed a $one hundred fifty five million order for 155-millimeter artillery gun systems. Aliyev, who succeeded his father to become the strongman president of Azerbaijan in 2003, declared India’s supply of guns to Armenia as an “unfriendly circulate.” India made this flow best after years of provocation by using Erdoğan who has sided with Pakistan on Kashmir. according to Glenn Carle, FOI senior companion and retired CIA officer, India’s sale to Armenia makes strategic experience and is a play for amazing power fame.

In a nutshell, the Armenia-Azerbaijan battle over Nagorno-Karabakh has ramifications a long way past the vicinity. the usa wishes Armenia to emulate Georgia and Ukraine, and be part of the ranks of unfastened democracies. the european wants peace in the Caucasus and cheap Azerbaijani gas to replace disrupted Russian substances. Russia desires the Pashinyan authorities, that's increasingly unpopular after defeat in 2020, to fall. yet it cannot and could not allow Armenia, an Orthodox Christian country, to be absolutely subjugated by means of its Muslim friends.

thanks to faith and ethnicity, Turkey and Azerbaijan see Armenia as a historical enemy. each want to train Yerevan a lesson. So does Ukraine and possibly even Georgia. apparently, mullah-run Iran desires to counter the developing have an impact on of fellow Muslims—largely Sunni Turkey and majority Shia Azerbaijan—in the area. It fears that a effective Azerbaijan should strive for the integration of Nakhchivan, the Azeri enclave in Armenia, and Azeri-majority areas in Iran. therefore, Tehran is selling fuel to power-hungry Armenia. thanks to Pavlovian cultural deference to Turkey, Pakistan sees the Armenia-Azerbaijan struggle as jihad and its madrassa-educated younger guys would possibly offer cannon fodder for this war. in the meantime, India is responding to the pan-Islamism danger of Turkey and Pakistan with the aid of supporting a probably precious best friend. 

The die is solid for a riveting saga, which guarantees to have greater twists and turns than Dirilis Ertugrul.